Construction and the energy transition in the Netherlands: opportunities for companies and investors

After several difficult years, Dutch construction is entering a new growth phase. Three lasting drivers sit behind it: the housing shortage, the renovation of existing buildings and the energy transition. Together they create long-term demand, both for companies operating in the Netherlands and for manufacturers and service providers from abroad.

The housing shortage: structural and persistent

According to the Primos forecast prepared for the Dutch government, the statistical housing shortage stands at around 384,000 homes in 2026, or 4.6% of the total housing stock. It is easing slightly compared with 2025, but will remain on the agenda for years.

Housebuilding is recovering. The Economic Institute for Construction (EIB) expects around 80,000 new homes in 2026 and 84,000 in 2027, up from roughly 68,000 in 2025. ABF Research considers 100,000 homes a year achievable in 2027.

The wider sector outlook

According to the EIB:

• Total construction output is set to grow by about 2.5% in 2026 and 4.5% in 2027.
• Housing output including renovation is expected to rise by around 5% a year in 2026 and 2027.
• Renovation and maintenance is expected to grow by roughly 3% a year.

In other words, demand is strong not only for new buildings, but also for upgrading the existing stock and improving its energy performance.

The energy transition: ambitious targets, a clear gap

The Dutch Climate Act targets a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions of at least 55% by 2030 compared with 1990. According to the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Institute (PBL), current policy is unlikely to reach that target, with an expected reduction of between 44% and 52%. Closing the gap will require additional, fast-acting measures.

For buildings, that translates into:

• energy-efficiency investments such as insulation, heat pumps and solar panels,
• the shift from natural gas to electric heating and heat networks,
• grid capacity, storage and sustainable infrastructure projects.

Where are the opportunities?

Building materials and industrial manufacturers, including those from Türkiye. Insulation, façade systems, windows and frames, ceramics, steel and aluminium products, electrical equipment. The critical requirement is documentation and sustainability data: CE marking, product performance declarations and, increasingly, carbon footprint data. The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) entered its definitive phase in 2026 for products such as cement, iron and steel, and aluminium.

Renovation and technical service companies. Labour shortages are one of the sector's biggest bottlenecks. Companies that can provide qualified teams and reliable project management are in high demand.

Dutch SMEs. For construction, renovation and energy companies trying to keep pace with demand, the real constraint is often organisational: pricing, planning, team structure and process discipline.

Investors. Housing and renovation projects, energy-efficiency services, and the acquisition of companies growing in these segments.

What to watch

• Cost and margin pressure: materials and labour remain expensive; bids need careful costing.
• Permitting: planning and permit procedures can delay projects; build buffers into timelines.
• Grid congestion: in some regions, waiting times for grid connections are affecting projects.
• Documentation and standards: without a document set that meets Dutch and EU standards, progressing with large buyers is difficult.

Conclusion

Construction and the energy transition in the Netherlands are not a short-term wave, but a transformation that will run for at least a decade. For companies that want a lasting position in this market, three things make the difference: documentation and sustainability readiness, the right local partner, and an organisation able to keep up with growing demand.

Figures are based on the most recent forecasts at the time of publication; forecasts are revised regularly.